Breaking Down the June 2026 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor: Lessons from the Phase One Agreement for New U.S.-China Agricultural Commitments

Recent U.S.-China negotiations have revived a familiar strategy: agricultural purchase commitments. Following agreements reached in Busan and Beijing, China has once again committed to substantial purchases of U.S. agricultural products. The June 2026 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor revisits the 2020–2021 Phase One Agreement to better understand what worked, what did not, and what lessons may apply to the current round of commitments. The report finds that Phase One generated a significant recovery in agricultural trade. U.S. agricultural exports to China climbed from trade-war lows of approximately $9.2 billion in 2018 and $13.9 billion in 2019 to $26.4 billion in 2020 and $32.8 billion in 2021. Exports ultimately reached a record $38 billion in 2022 before declining in subsequent years. China fulfilled roughly 80 percent of its agricultural purchase commitments, making agriculture one of the strongest-performing portions of the agreement.

Exhibit 1: U.S. Agricultural Exports to Mainland China,2017-2025.

Note: Trade-war, Phase One, and post-Phase-One phases marked. The 2022 peak fell outside the two-year commitment window. Calendar-year totals, mainland China only, BICO-HS10 narrow agricultural definition. Q1 2025 vs Q1 2026 callout illustrates the early-2026 rebound from the depressed 2025 base following the October 2025 Busan tariff suspension.

Source: NDSU using USDA FAS GATS, U.S. Census Bureau trade data.

The exhibit illustrates both the magnitude of the Phase One recovery and the challenges that followed. While exports surged during and immediately after the agreement, those gains proved difficult to sustain as market conditions changed and global competition intensified.

One of the report’s most important findings is that the most durable gains came from market-access reforms rather than purchase commitments alone. Regulatory changes often created lasting opportunities that continued well beyond the formal implementation period.Beef provides one of the strongest examples. Following reforms involving cattle age restrictions, traceability requirements, and hormone residue limits, U.S. beef exports to China expanded rapidly, growing from a relatively small base to nearly $1.82 billion by 2022. Although exports declined during the 2024–2025 plant-registration dispute, the broader trend demonstrates how market-access reforms can create long-term trade opportunities.

Exhibit 2: Beef: China's Beef Imports by Supplier (Bars) and U.S. Share of Chinese Beef Imports (Line).

Source: NDSU using S&P Global Trade Atlas data.

Poultry tells a similar story. After China lifted its highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) ban and adopted regionalization policies, U.S. poultry exports increased substantially and maintained a meaningful share of the Chinese market. Unlike some other commodities, poultry gains largely survived beyond the original purchase-commitment period, making it one of the clearest examples of a durable Phase One success.

Exhibit 3: Poultry: China's Poultry Imports by Supplier (Bars) and U.S. Share of Chinese Poultry Imports (Line).

Source: NDSU using S&P Global Trade Atlas data.

Tree nuts also retained much of their post-Phase One growth. Together, these commodities demonstrate that the strongest long-term gains often result from removing barriers to trade rather than relying exclusively on purchase targets.

While several commodities benefited from lasting market-access improvements, other gains proved far more temporary. The report highlights corn as perhaps the clearest example.

Exhibit 4: China's Corn Imports by Supplier, 2017-2025 (Bars), With U.S. Share of Chinese Corn Imports Overlaid (Line).

Note: Calendar-year import data.

Source: NDSU using S&P Global Trade Atlas data.

During the height of Phase One, U.S. corn exports to China surged to nearly 20 million metric tons and captured roughly 70 percent of China’s corn import market. However, those gains were closely tied to unique market conditions, including rebuilding livestock inventories following African Swine Fever and tight domestic feed supplies within China. Once Brazil secured market access and Chinese import demand softened, U.S. market share declined rapidly.

By 2025, U.S. corn accounted for less than one percent of Chinese imports. Wheat followed a similar trajectory, while soybeans recovered significantly but never fully regained their pre-trade-war position. These outcomes highlight how quickly market share can shift when competitors gain access to key markets.

The report also documents a broader decline in the U.S. share of China's agricultural imports. While the United States recovered market share during Phase One, Brazil steadily expanded its position and became an increasingly important supplier.

The findings suggest that favorable market conditions can support rapid export growth, but maintaining those gains requires continued competitiveness and sustained market access.

The Lesson for 2026

Perhaps the most important conclusion from the June 2026 Trade Monitor is that durability matters more than temporary export spikes. An econometric assessment found that U.S. agricultural exports to China exceeded expected levels by approximately $6.7 billion in 2020 and $5.9 billion in 2021, eventually peaking at roughly $12.6 billion in 2022. However, much of that advantage faded in subsequent years as market conditions changed and competitors expanded their presence. The report concludes that purchase commitments can generate meaningful trade gains when combined with tariff relief, market access, and strong commercial demand. However, sustaining those gains requires continued implementation, predictable regulatory treatment, and ongoing attention to non-tariff barriers. As policymakers look toward the latest round of agricultural commitments, the Phase One experience offers both encouragement and caution. Purchase targets can help drive exports, but the strongest and most durable gains are likely to come from policies that improve long-term market access and strengthen commercial relationships between trading partners.

Read the full May 2026 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor: Assessing the 2020 U.S.-China Phase One Agreement: Lessons for 2026 Ag Commitments

For inquiries, contact:

Shawn Arita – shawn.arita@ndsu.edu

Sandro Steinbach – sandro.steinbach@ndsu.edu

Jiyeon Kim – jiyeon.kim@ndsu.edu