Unveiling the NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor: Tracking U.S. Ag Trade Patterns in Turbulent Times

The June 2025 edition marks the first report in a new series from the NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor, produced by the Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies at North Dakota State University, provides a comprehensive analysis of U.S. agricultural exports amid escalating trade tensions, particularly with China. As the leading institution for applied economic research on trade, policy, and risk management in the Upper Midwest, the Center delivers data-driven insights for producers, agribusinesses, and policymakers navigating shifting global markets. This edition explores the impact of retaliatory tariffs, collapsing forward sales, and shifting global demand, using the latest trade data to assess the evolving challenges facing U.S. agricultural markets.

Retaliatory tariffs have once again placed U.S. agriculture at the center of global trade disputes. In early 2025, the U.S. reimposed tariffs on steel, aluminum, and fentanyl-related products. China responded with steep and escalating tariffs on a wide range of U.S. agricultural goods. By April 2025, average tariff rates imposed by China on American agricultural exports reached over 125%, exceeding levels recorded during the 2018–2019 trade conflict. Although a partial 90-day truce was negotiated in May that reduced some tariffs to a baseline of 10%, many of the more severe tariffs remained in effect, continuing to restrict U.S. access to the Chinese market.

Exhibit 1: China Tariffs on Selected U.S. Agricultural Products.

Note: Includes MFN rate, Section 232 retaliation, Section 301 retaliation, and retaliatory actions in 2025. Excludes 301-related tariffs, which were provided with exemptions following the Phase One deal. Tariffs are reported using a simple average. In-quota tariffs are reported for corn and wheat.

Source: NDSU using information from China’s Ministry of Finance State Council Tariff Commission

The consequences of these developments were swift and severe. U.S. agricultural exports to China declined by 55% in April 2025 alone, amounting to a year-to-date loss of over $5.1 billion in the Chinese market. This loss dwarfed modest gains made in other regions, such as the European Union, South Korea, and Vietnam. According to Exhibit 2 in the report, while exports to countries like the EU and Vietnam showed increases in the hundreds of millions, they were insufficient to counterbalance the massive shortfall in China. The net result was a $2 billion drop in total U.S. agricultural exports year-to-date.

Exhibit 2: Year-to-date (Jan-April) Net Change in U.S. agricultural exports in Million $.

Source: NDSU using data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Note: This figure illustrates the dramatic $5.1 billion drop in exports to China, in contrast to smaller gains across other markets like the EU, South Asia, and Korea, culminating in an overall global net loss of $2 billion.

Commodity-Level Export Performance

The report further examines how individual commodities have performed in this volatile environment. Products with heavy exposure to the Chinese market, such as soybeans, beef, and sorghum, have been especially hard hit. For example, exports of sorghum and beef are now hovering at five-year lows. On the other hand, commodities with more diversified export bases have performed better. Corn, soybean meal, and ethanol have experienced strong demand from countries in Latin America and Asia, placing their 2025 export volumes near or above the upper end of their five-year range.

Exhibit 3: US Commodity Export Performance: 2025 vs 5-year Range.

Source: NDSU using data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Forward Sales and Contract Bookings

One of the most concerning developments discussed in the report is the collapse of forward export sales to China. Forward contracted sales of key commodities fell drastically in April and May, coinciding with the escalation of retaliatory tariffs. The accumulation of forward sales for major products like soybeans, beef, and corn underscores this trend. For soybeans, usually a significant export to China in the fall, contracted sales by May were well below both the three-year average and 2024 figures. Corn sales to China were almost nonexistent in 2025, and beef and pork muscle cuts saw notable cancellations and a lack of new contracts. Although a slight uptick occurred after the May truce, overall forward sales volumes remained depressed.

Regional Export Trends

Regional export data highlights diverging trends. While China experienced a dramatic decline, exports to South Asia rose by 33%, supported by increased wheat and soybean meal demand. The EU saw a 15% increase in exports, driven by growth in tree nuts and cotton. However, exports to Mexico and Canada—two of the U.S.’s largest markets—declined slightly or remained flat, indicating broader regional challenges.

Exhibit 4: U.S. Agricultural Export Growth Year-to-Date by Product Group and Country.

Source: NDSU using data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The report also reviews USDA-FAS weekly export sales data to provide a timelier snapshot of trade activity. Corn shipments have remained robust, with 2025 volumes running 27% higher than the same period in 2024. In contrast, soybean exports fell to seasonal lows. Sorghum exports continued to struggle due to minimal Chinese demand, while beef and pork exports also showed year-over-year declines. The data reveals this mixed picture clearly. Corn showed significant year-over-year gains in both exports and net sales, while pork, beef, and soybeans displayed noticeable contractions.

📘 Read the full report:

🔗 http://dx.doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.358820

For questions and feedback, contact:

📩 Shawn Arita– shawn.arita@ndsu.edu

📩 Sandro Steinbach – sandro.steinbach@ndsu.edu

📩 Xiting Zhuang – xiting.zhuang@ndsu.edu