Selling or Storing when Prices are Low

Commodity prices in North Dakota remain at some of the lowest levels since 2021. Soybean basis prices in particular have reached extremely low levels, as shown in Figure 1. Additionally, China’s lack of demand for soy imports have contributed to low basis in North Dakota and Minnesota, where soybeans are often shipped to the Pacific Northwest via rail. Given these factors, many producers will be looking to store grain in hopes of markets improving. In this CAPTS blog post, we briefly consider the key factors that inform the decision to sell or store grain.

Figure 1: The soybean spot basis in selected states as of October 15, 2025.

Source: NDSU using crop basis data from DTN.

In simple terms, the decision to store makes sense when expected improvements in the market price or basis offset the costs associated with storage. A simple expression of this rule is that storage is expected to result in higher returns when:

Futures carry + expected basis improvement ≥ storage + interest + handling + quality risk.

Futures carry is the deferred futures market price minus the nearby futures price. When carry is low (or inverted, meaning that the deferred futures prices are lower than nearby futures prices), the market is signaling “do not store” unless you have a strong, specific reason to expect the local basis will improve substantially. Table 1 below summarizes some of these values for corn and soybeans based on available literature.

Table 1. Corn and Soybean Futures Prices, Storage Costs, and Carry Estimates in October 2025

Variable	Value	Source
Nearby corn futures price	$4.225/bushel	DTN CBOT Corn Dec 2025 futures (as of Oct 17, 2025; DTN ProphetX)
Deferred corn futures price	$4.365/bushel	CBOT Corn Mar 2026 futures, (as of Oct 17, 2025; DTN ProphetX)
Futures corn carry	$0.14/bushel
Nearby soybeans futures price	$10.195 /bushel	DTN CBOT Soybean Nov 2025 futures (as of Oct 17, 2025; DTN ProphetX)
Deferred soybeans futures price	$10.3675/bushel	DTN CBOT Soybean Jan 2026 futures (as of Oct 17, 2025; DTN ProphetX)
Futures soybeans carry	$0.1725/bushel
Monthly storage cost (off-farm)	$0.08/bushel/month	Recent quote from Cass County storage location.
Monthly storage cost (on-farm)	$0.05/bushel/month	Average reported value in 2024 NDSU Custom Rate Survey: https://www.ndsu.edu/agriculture/ sites/default/files/2024- 12/custlate24.pd
Monthly storage cost (on-farm, temporary)	For grain bags: one-time cost of $0.132/bushel	Tennessee Extension Guide: https://utia.tennessee.edu/publicat ions/wp-content/uploads/sites/269/2023/10 /W1060.pdf
Storage spoilage risk (off-farm)	Very low risk
Storage spoilage risk (on-farm)	Low risk Staying within Allowable Storage Time should keep risk to ~0.5%	Minnesota Extension Storage Guide: https://extension.umn.edu/corn- harvest/managing-stored-grain- aeration#allowable-storage-times- 1214110
Storage spoilage risk (on-farm, temporary)	Highly variable risk. Depends on storage type, grain moisture, and weather. Bags: 1–3% loss & extra monitoring. Piles (covered, short duration): 1–3% loss. Piles (uncovered / weather-exposed): 5–15% loss	NDSU Alternative Grain Storing Guide: https://www.ag.ndsu.edu/news/ne wsreleases/2015/aug-24- 2015/consider-pros-cons-of- alternative-grain-storage-methods

For North Dakota producers, a lack of high-quality storage options and low market prices make 2025 a potentially challenging year. The benefits of storing in hopes of better prices must be weighed against the costs of storage. These costs depend considerably on what storage options are available. High-quality on-farm storage should be utilized first, with off-farm or temporary supplementing if expectations of future price increases are sufficiently high to offset the high costs of off-farm storage and/or the risks of spoilage associated with temporary storage.

Author and Contact Information:

Matthew Gammans - matthew.gammans@ndsu.edu

Wuit Yi Lwin - wuityi.lwin@ndsu.edu