Unpacking the July 2025 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor: China’s Import Declines Reflect Broader Demand Weakness that Extend Beyond Tariffs

The July 2025 edition of the NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor, published by the Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies at North Dakota State University, presents a detailed examination of evolving global trade dynamics amid a sharp contraction in China’s agricultural import demand. While last month’s report focused primarily on U.S. export performance, this month’s analysis takes a broader view, revealing how structural shifts in China’s economy and trade policies are affecting all major agricultural exporters. With China’s agricultural imports down 18% year-to-date, more than any other major market, this edition highlights the widespread ripple effects on countries like the United States and Brazil, and explores the shifting patterns of agricultural flows in 2025.

Exhibit 3: Import Growth Rate Year to Date in 2025 by Country/Region on a Value Basis.

Source: NDSU using data from the S&P Global Trade Atlas.

China’s Broad Pullback Hits All Major Exporters

One of the central themes of this report is that China’s import slowdown is not isolated to U.S. exports but reflects a broader demand contraction that is disrupting global markets. Exhibit 8 of the report examines the year-to-date change in China’s agricultural imports by country, and the results are striking: U.S. exports to China are down $6.1 billion through May 2025, followed by Brazil with a $1.0 billion reduction. Other large exporters like Argentina, Ukraine, and Canada have also experienced significant losses. While smaller suppliers such as Singapore, Uruguay, and Chile reported marginal gains, these increases were not enough to offset the net $7.45 billion contraction in Chinese agricultural imports.

Exhibit 8: Year-to-Date (Jan-May) Net Change in Chinese Agricultural Imports in Million USD.

Note: The figure shows partner-reported exports.

Source: NDSU using data from the S&P Global Trade Atlas.

This figure illustrates the widespread decline in agricultural exports to China across multiple countries. While U.S.–China tensions have played a role, the similar export drops from Brazil and other major suppliers suggest broader, systemic issues. These include slowing Chinese consumption, improved domestic harvests, and perhaps strategic shifts in food security and import diversification.

U.S. Agricultural Trade Exposure to Tariff-Affected Markets

Trade policy continues to play a pivotal role in shaping market access. Exhibit 1 in the report provides an update of U.S. agricultural trade values by country in relation to the 2025 reciprocal tariff schedule. The figure distinguishes between countries with whom the U.S. has announced new trade deals (like China, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam), those that have received formal tariff letters, and those yet to be notified. U.S. trade partners have largely refrained from retaliation against the reciprocal tariffs, with the exception of China, which had initially imposed retaliatory tariffs but has since reduced them. Separately, Canada has imposed retaliatory tariffs, but these actions occurred outside the framework of the reciprocal tariff negotiations.

Markets such as Japan, South Korea, the European Union, and Vietnam account for significant U.S. agricultural exports and are currently navigating changing tariff conditions. For example, under the recently announced U.S.–Vietnam deal, Vietnamese exports to the U.S. will face a 20% tariff (and 40% on transshipped goods), while U.S. agricultural products will receive duty-free access to Vietnamese markets—offering new opportunities for American commodities such as boneless beef, pistachios, and chicken cuts.

Exhibit 1: Value of U.S. Agricultural Trade in Million USD in 2024 by Reciprocal Tariff Partners Listed under Annex 1.

Notes: Status as of July 10, 2025. UK and Brazil were not included under Annex 1.

Source: NDSU using data from the U.S. Census Bureau and https://www.whitehouse.gov/wpcontent/uploads/2025/04/Annex-I.pdf3

Commodity Performance: Grains Under Pressure, Corn and Soymeal Stand Out

The report details highly uneven performance across key U.S. agricultural commodities. Products dependent on Chinese demand have suffered sharp losses: soybeans, poultry, beef,  are at five-year lows. In contrast, corn, soybean meal, and ethanol have posted solid gains, supported by stronger demand in Latin America and Asia. Corn exports alone are up 29% year-to-date, placing 2025 volumes near the high end of the five-year range.

These commodity-specific divergences illustrate the challenges facing producers who are highly concentrated in a single export market, versus those benefiting from diversified demand.

Regional Export Trends Reveal Divergence

From a regional perspective, U.S. exports show a mixed pattern. While value of ag exports to China are down 55% year-to-date, exports to the EU have risen 16%, and South Asia is up 45%, thanks to growth in wheat and soybean meal demand. Exports to Canada and Mexico, two of the U.S.'s largest partners—have remained flat or declined slightly, indicating broader headwinds in North American markets.

These figures emphasize that while China’s retreat is a dominant factor, it is not the only influence. Trade diversification is clearly helping U.S. exporters absorb some of the shock, but net export values are still down $1.95 billion compared to the same period last year.

Forward Sales Show Signs of Market Hesitation

Perhaps the most concerning trend in the report is the collapse in forward contracted export sales to China, particularly for soybeans and beef. Soybean contracts are nearly nonexistent. Although some limited recovery occurred after the May tariff truce, overall volumes remain below 2024 levels and well below three-year averages. This suggests a lack of confidence among Chinese buyers and continued uncertainty regarding future trade terms.

📘 Read the full July 2025 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor and download data tables at:

🔗 https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/359278/files/NDSU%20Agricultural%20Trade%20Monitor%202025-07.pdf

📩 For inquiries, contact the authors:

Shawn Arita – shawn.arita@ndsu.edu

Sandro Steinbach – sandro.steinbach@ndsu.edu

Xiting Zhuang – xiting.zhuang@ndsu.edu

Ming Wang – ming.wang@ndsu.edu