Breaking Down the October 2025 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor: China Could Bypass U.S. Soybeans as IEEPA Tariffs Raise Input Costs

The October 2025 edition of the NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor, published by North Dakota State University’s Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies (CAPTS), highlights two ongoing developments affecting U.S. agricultural trade. China’s potential to bypass U.S. soybeans in the 2025/26 marketing year has disrupted traditional supply chains, while new IEEPA tariffs have raised agricultural input costs and altered sourcing patterns.

Can China Get by Without U.S. Soybeans During the 2025/26 Marketing Year?

China could bypass U.S. soybeans this marketing year if it is willing to pay the price. A larger Brazilian export supply, other alternative suppliers, and domestic stocks provide enough flexibility to meet demand without U.S. supplies.

Brazil and Other Exporters Could Cover Nearly All of China’s Soybean Demand. Based on 2018/19 trade war patterns, we project that non-U.S. suppliers could ship upwards of 107 MMTs to China in 2025/26, about 96% of the projected import demand. Brazil’s share alone could rise to 93 MMTs.

Exhibit 1: China’s Share of Soybean Exports and Projected 2025/26 Volumes from Brazil (Top) and the Rest of the World Excluding the U.S. and Brazil (Bottom).

Source: NDSU projections using data from the S&P Global Trade Atlas and USDA.

China could draw on stocks or adjust feed rations to close the gap. Estimates of China’s soybean stocks range widely from 12–44 MMT, which seems sufficient to cover the residual from non-U.S. suppliers (5 MMT shortfall). China could also reduce soybean meal use through ration reformulation or lower feeding intensity. Both approaches, however, involve risks associated with depleting reserves and potential productivity losses in the livestock sector. The critical test will come in December-January, when Brazilian supplies tighten before the new harvest, historically the period when U.S. soybeans have filled the gap.

Exhibit 2: China 2025/26 Forecasted Imports and Projected Brazil and Non-US Export Supply plus Estimated Chinese Stocks.

Source: NDSU using data from the S&P Global Trade Atlas, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, and WASDE Report.

China May Be Willing to Absorb Modest Price Premiums. Current Chinese soybean import premiums are around $40/MT above U.S. offers, below the $90/MT+ premiums paid during the 2018/19 trade war. Chinese soybean meal and pork prices are also relatively low. China could eliminate U.S. soybean dependence, but it would require both significant modifications in logistics and demand suppression.

Ultimately, whether China bypasses U.S. soybeans is a strategic choice beyond agriculture. While bypassing U.S. supplies would involve higher import costs and drawdowns of domestic reserves, these factors are likely secondary to the role soybean purchases play in China’s broader trade negotiations and strategic positioning vis-à-vis the United States.

Exhibit 3: Brazil-US FOB Soybean Price Differential by Month.

Source: NDSU using data from Fastmarkets.

What Are the Impacts of IEEPA Tariffs on Ag Input Imports and Fertilizer Prices?

IEEPA Tariffs are Shifting Ag Input Trade Patterns. Following the imposition of 10%+ IEEPA tariffs in April 2025, imports of tariff-affected inputs have fallen sharply, while imports of non-affected inputs (e.g., USMCA, exempt products) have increased. During April–September 2025, nitrogen imports facing IEEPA tariffs declined 23% (580 kt), while nitrogen imports from zero-tariff countries surged 44% (464 kt) compared with the same period in 2024. Imports of phosphate products subject to IEEPA tariffs fell by 47%, while exempt categories showed increases or smaller declines in comparison.

Exhibit 4: Year-over-Year (Apr-Sep) Changes in U.S. Seaborne Imports of Agricultural Inputs: 2024 vs. 2025.

Source: NDSU using data from the S&P Global Trade Atlas and PIERS.

Importers Are Re-routing Supply Chains. Evidence suggests importers are increasingly sourcing from tariff-exempt or USMCA partner countries to manage costs, while growth in pesticide and seed imports reflects inelastic demand and existing supply commitments. Fertilizer imports from Russia have increased in 2025, since they are not subject to IEEPA tariffs. While this has helped fill short-term supply gaps, it has also made the U.S. more dependent on a geopolitically risky supplier.

Exhibit 5: U.S. vs Canada Fertilizer Prices.

Source: NDSU using data from Bloomberg.

IEEPA Tariffs Increased U.S. Fertilizer Costs. Comparing U.S.–Canada price spreads before and after the tariffs shows that the relative price gap widened, with some U.S. farmers now paying up to $34/MT more for DAP, $32/MT more for MAP, and $11/MT more for Urea.

Exhibit 6: Change in U.S. Fertilizer Prices relative to Canada following IEEPA tariffs after accounting for seasonality.

Source: NDSU using data from Green Markets.

Global Price Run-Up Adds Pressure. Fertilizer prices have already experienced a significant run-up in 2025, particularly for MAP and DAP, primarily driven by global supply and demand factors rather than IEEPA tariffs. However, the tariffs are not helping; they have amplified regional price spreads and constrained importer flexibility.

Read the full September 2025 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor:  http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/373344

Author and Contact Information:

Shawn Arita – shawn.arita@ndsu.edu

Jiyeon Kim – jiyeon.kim@ndsu.edu

Wuit Yi Lwin – wuityi.lwin@ndsu.edu

Sandro Steinbach – sandro.steinbach@ndsu.edu

Ming Wang – ming.wang@ndsu.edu

Xiting Zhuang – xiting.zhuang@ndsu.edu