Nathaly Villavicencio
Apr 30, 2026
New projections highlight strong income growth in 2026, followed by a projected decline as policy support tapers.
The Spring 2026 North Dakota Farm Income Outlook, co-published by the Rural & Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF) at the University of Missouri and the Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies (CAPTS) at NDSU, provides an updated assessment of the state’s agricultural sector under evolving market and policy conditions. The report delivers projections for 2026–2027, with preliminary insights extending into future years.
During this release cycle, CAPTS researchers collaborated with RaFF economists to incorporate the latest USDA and FAPRI projections, offering a comprehensive view of how government support, commodity markets, and input costs are shaping farm profitability.
According to the analysis, North Dakota net farm income is projected to increase by 42% in 2026, reaching $4.46 billion, marking the second-highest level on record. This growth is driven primarily by a $1.59 billion increase in government payments, which are expected to reach a record $3.05 billion. Crop and livestock receipts are also projected to rise modestly, alongside higher crop insurance indemnities.
“This outlook highlights the growing importance of policy support in sustaining farm income,” said Dr. Sandro Steinbach, Director of CAPTS. “While market conditions remain mixed, government payments continue to play a central role in stabilizing producer revenues.”
Looking ahead to 2027, net farm income is projected to decline by 26% to $3.29 billion, largely due to a sharp reduction in government payments as temporary and ad hoc programs phase out.
The report also provides commodity-level insights:
• Crop receipts increase 3% to $9.05 billion in 2026, driven by higher corn and soybean revenues, while wheat receipts decline.
• Livestock receipts rise 11% to $2.18 billion, supported by strong cattle prices and increased marketings.
• Production expenses reach a record $11.34 billion, increasing 1% amid rising fuel, feed, and input costs.
The findings underscore the shifting composition of farm income, with increased reliance on government support offsetting tighter margins driven by rising costs and mixed market performance.
CAPTS will continue supporting research and outreach efforts that provide data-driven insights into agricultural risk, production economics, and policy developments shaping North Dakota agriculture.