Nathaly Villavicencio
Dec 9, 2025
New projections highlight the role of government support, shifting market conditions, and commodity-specific pressures.
The Fall 2025 North Dakota Farm Income Outlook, co-published by the Rural & Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF) at the University of Missouri and the Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies (CAPTS) at NDSU, provides an updated assessment of the state’s farm sector amid ongoing market uncertainty. The report delivers projections for 2025–2026, detailing changes in income, commodity receipts, government payments, and input costs.
During this release cycle, CAPTS researchers collaborated with RaFF economists to integrate the latest USDA and FAPRI projections, offering insight into how federal support, production patterns, and commodity prices will shape profitability for North Dakota producers.
According to the analysis, North Dakota net farm income is projected to increase 42% in 2025, reaching $3.46 billion. This growth is driven primarily by a strong livestock sector (up $590 million), a $1.42 billion surge in government payments, including American Relief Act disbursements. While crop receipts are expected to decline 4%, with reductions in soybeans, corn, and wheat, livestock receipts are forecast to rise 35%, supported by record cattle prices and higher marketings.
“This year’s outlook underscores just how critical federal support has become in stabilizing farm income,” said Dr. Sandro Steinbach, Director of CAPTS. “Producers continue to face significant market headwinds, and understanding these income drivers is essential for navigating the volatility ahead.”
Looking to 2026, the report anticipates a 16% decline in net farm income, largely due to a steep drop in government support as ad-hoc payments taper. Crop and livestock receipts are projected to stabilize, but higher production costs and reduced program payments add pressure to the outlook.
The report also provides commodity-level insight:
Crop receipts fall to a three-year low of $9 billion in 2025 before leveling off in 2026.
Livestock receipts climb to $2.28 billion, with cattle representing 86% of revenues.
Input costs rise 3% in 2025, driven by fertilizer, seed, and machinery expenses.
The findings illustrate CAPTS’s ongoing commitment to delivering research-based, data-driven analysis of production economics, risk, and policy developments shaping North Dakota agriculture.
CAPTS will continue supporting outreach and applied research that help producers, partners, and policymakers navigate evolving market and policy conditions.