New CAPTS Study Analyzes Trade Retaliation Risks and Market Access Opportunities for U.S. Agriculture

A new study from the Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies (CAPTS) at North Dakota State University examines how recent U.S. trade policy shifts may impact agricultural exports, with a focus on exposure to retaliatory tariffs and potential market access gains in the United Kingdom and Japan.

The study, 2025 U.S. Trade Policy Shifts and Agricultural Exports: Mapping Retaliation Exposure and Assessing Potential Market Access Offsets in the UK and Japan, authored by Dr. Carlos Zurita, Research Assistant Professor, and Dr. Sandro Steinbach, Associate Professor and Director, analyzes export dependencies of key agricultural products across major U.S. trading partners, including China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union.

Using detailed trade and tariff data, the analysis identifies which agricultural products are most vulnerable to export losses under continued trade tensions. Key products such as soybeans, corn, dairy, pork, tree nuts, and distilled spirits face particularly high exposure if Canada, China, Mexico, and the EU were to impose retaliatory measures. However, the magnitude of risk varies by product and destination market. As Carlos Zurita notes, “trade retaliation does not affect all agricultural products equally, and understanding where export exposure is most concentrated is critical for informing effective trade policy responses.”

The study also evaluates the potential benefits of recent trade agreements with the UK and Japan. Results suggest that expanded market access in these countries could partially offset export losses arising from retaliation. Potential gains are concentrated in products such as beef, pork, vegetables, and select grains. However, the ability to capture these opportunities depends on competitiveness, prevailing market conditions, and existing trade relationships. According to Sandro Steinbach, “understanding both the risks from retaliation and the potential gains from new trade agreements is essential for navigating today’s uncertain trade environment.”

Overall, the findings underscore the importance of proactive trade policy strategies that balance risk mitigation with opportunities for market expansion, helping U.S. agricultural producers adapt to an increasingly complex global trade landscape.

The full article is published in Choices Magazine and is available at: https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/trade-theme/2025-us-trade-policy-shifts-and-agricultural-exports-mapping-retaliation-exposure-and-assessing-potential-market-access-offsets-in-the-uk-and-japan